Daily Report

This report is updated automatically each day to highlight key insights from the MosquitoAlertES platform. It focuses on the 6-day-ahead forecast of the Vector Risk Index (VRI) for tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus) in Spain. This provides a relative measure of the variation in the risk of human contact with tiger mosquitoes across Spain and over time. The 6-day-ahead forecast (which starts on the current day) is based on the weather forecast provided daily by the Spanish Meteorological Agency.

Country-Wide Trends

During the next 7 available days (based on data through December 19), we estimate the mean VRI in Spain will be 0 and the maximum will be 0.37, occuring on December 19 in Rafal, Alicante, Comunitat Valenciana. Figure 1 shows the mean and maximum values estimated for each day, starting 30 days before the latest available data and extending through the most recent forecasts.

Figure 1: Estimated country-wide VRI during past 30 days and coming 6 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

CCAA Trends

Figure 2 shows the mean and maximum VRI estimates for each of Spain’s Autonomous Communities (CCAAs) from during the past 365 days (top panel) and for the week ahead (bottom panel).

Figure 2: Mean and maximum VRI estimates by CCAA during the past year (left) and in the week ahead (right).

The following sections show mean and maximum values for each autonomous community.

Andalucía

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Andalucía will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.15, occuring on December 23 in Marbella, Málaga. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.01, and the maximum has been 0.33, occuring on December 13 in Castilleja de la Cuesta, Sevilla. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.75, occuring on August 08 in Castilleja de la Cuesta, Sevilla. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 3: Estimated VRI in Andalucía during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Aragón

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Aragón will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.01, occuring on December 19 in Pueyo de Santa Cruz, Huesca. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.04, occuring on December 07 in Cuarte de Huerva, Zaragoza. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.27, occuring on August 18 in Utebo, Zaragoza. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 4: Estimated VRI in Aragón during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Cantabria

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Cantabria will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on December 19 in Solórzano, Cantabria. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on November 19 in Solórzano, Cantabria. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on December 19 in Solórzano, Cantabria. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 5: Estimated VRI in Cantabria during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Castilla y León

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Castilla y León will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on December 19 in Sotillo de la Adrada, Ávila. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.01, occuring on December 07 in Sotillo de la Adrada, Ávila. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.15, occuring on August 13 in Palazuelos de Eresma, Segovia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 6: Estimated VRI in Castilla y León during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Castilla-La Mancha

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Castilla-La Mancha will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.02, occuring on December 19 in Caudete, Albacete. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.06, occuring on December 09 in Caudete, Albacete. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.32, occuring on August 23 in Illescas, Toledo. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 7: Estimated VRI in Castilla-La Mancha during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Cataluña/Catalunya

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Cataluña/Catalunya will be 0.01, and the maximum will be 0.24, occuring on December 19 in Badia del Vallès, Barcelona. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.34, occuring on December 07 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.06, and the maximum has been 0.88, occuring on August 13 in Premià de Mar, Barcelona. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 8: Estimated VRI in Cataluña/Catalunya during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta will be 0.08, and the maximum will be 0.11, occuring on December 19 in Ceuta, Ceuta. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.12, and the maximum has been 0.2, occuring on December 13 in Ceuta, Ceuta. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.2, and the maximum has been 0.39, occuring on July 07 in Ceuta, Ceuta. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 9: Estimated VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla will be 0.16, and the maximum will be 0.2, occuring on December 19 in Melilla, Melilla. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.2, and the maximum has been 0.26, occuring on December 13 in Melilla, Melilla. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.32, and the maximum has been 0.55, occuring on August 08 in Melilla, Melilla. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 10: Estimated VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Comunidad Foral de Navarra

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunidad Foral de Navarra will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.05, occuring on December 20 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.25, occuring on December 06 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.78, occuring on September 03 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 11: Estimated VRI in Comunidad Foral de Navarra during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Comunidad de Madrid

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunidad de Madrid will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.01, occuring on December 19 in Velilla de San Antonio, Madrid. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.06, occuring on December 06 in Rivas-Vaciamadrid, Madrid. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.01, and the maximum has been 0.53, occuring on June 11 in Villaviciosa de Odón, Madrid. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 12: Estimated VRI in Comunidad de Madrid during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Comunitat Valenciana

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunitat Valenciana will be 0.01, and the maximum will be 0.37, occuring on December 19 in Rafal, Alicante. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.41, occuring on December 07 in Rafal, Alicante. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.07, and the maximum has been 0.84, occuring on August 19 in l’Alqueria d’Asnar, Alicante. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 13: Estimated VRI in Comunitat Valenciana during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Extremadura

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Extremadura will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on December 20 in Almaraz, Cáceres. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.02, occuring on December 06 in Navalmoral de la Mata, Cáceres. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.11, occuring on June 10 in Badajoz, Badajoz. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 14: Estimated VRI in Extremadura during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Galicia

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Galicia will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.17, occuring on December 19 in Vigo, Pontevedra. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.39, occuring on December 09 in Vigo, Pontevedra. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.75, occuring on August 22 in Cangas, Pontevedra. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 15: Estimated VRI in Galicia during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Illes Balears

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Illes Balears will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.25, occuring on December 19 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.43, occuring on December 06 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.1, and the maximum has been 0.7, occuring on June 26 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 16: Estimated VRI in Illes Balears during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

La Rioja

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in La Rioja will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on December 20 in Logroño, Rioja, La. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.04, occuring on December 06 in Logroño, Rioja, La. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.3, occuring on June 01 in Logroño, Rioja, La. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 17: Estimated VRI in La Rioja during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

País Vasco/Euskadi

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in País Vasco/Euskadi will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.13, occuring on December 23 in c(“Lasarte-Oria”, “Lasarte-Oria”), c(“Gipuzkoa”, “Gipuzcoa”). As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.01, and the maximum has been 0.32, occuring on December 09 in Getxo, Bizkaia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.82, occuring on August 24 in Portugalete, Bizkaia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 18: Estimated VRI in País Vasco/Euskadi during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Principado de Asturias

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Principado de Asturias will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on December 19 in Allande, Asturias. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on November 19 in Allande, Asturias. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on December 19 in Allande, Asturias. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 19: Estimated VRI in Principado de Asturias during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.

Región de Murcia

During the next 7 available days, we estimate the mean VRI in Región de Murcia will be 0.01, and the maximum will be 0.06, occuring on December 19 in Los Alcázares, Murcia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.16, occuring on December 06 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.04, and the maximum has been 0.39, occuring on September 18 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days and the available forecasts.

Figure 20: Estimated VRI in Región de Murcia during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows latest available day.