Daily Report

This report is updated automatically each day to highlight key insights from the MosquitoAlertES platform. It focuses on the 6-day-ahead forecast of the Vector Risk Index (VRI) for tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus) in Spain. This provides a relative measure of the variation in the risk of human contact with tiger mosquitoes across Spain and over time. The 6-day-ahead forecast (which starts on the current day) is based on the weather forecast provided daily by the Spanish Meteorological Agency.

Country-Wide Trends

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Spain will be 0.02 and the maximum will be 0.77, occuring on October 18 in Alcantarilla, Murcia, Región de Murcia. Figure 1 shows the mean and maximum values estimated for each day, starting 30-days ago and extending 6-days ahead.

Figure 1: Estimated country-wide VRI during past 30 days and coming 6 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

CCAA Trends

Figure 2 shows the mean and maximum VRI estimates for each of Spain’s Autonomous Communities (CCAAs) from during the past 365 days (top panel) and for the week ahead (bottom panel).

Figure 2: Mean and maximum VRI estimates by CCAA during the past year (left) and in the week ahead (right).

The following sections show mean and maximum values for each autonomous community.

Andalucía

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Andalucía will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.64, occuring on October 20 in Castilleja de la Cuesta, Sevilla. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.7, occuring on October 16 in Castilleja de la Cuesta, Sevilla. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.82, occuring on November 14 in Castilleja de la Cuesta, Sevilla. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 3: Estimated VRI in Andalucía during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Aragón

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Aragón will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.11, occuring on October 17 in Nuez de Ebro, Zaragoza. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.34, occuring on September 25 in Cuarte de Huerva, Zaragoza. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.35, occuring on June 30 in Cuarte de Huerva, Zaragoza. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 4: Estimated VRI in Aragón during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Cantabria

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Cantabria will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on October 17 in Solórzano, Cantabria. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on September 17 in Solórzano, Cantabria. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on November 07 in Solórzano, Cantabria. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 5: Estimated VRI in Cantabria during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Castilla y León

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Castilla y León will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.07, occuring on October 21 in Sotillo de la Adrada, Ávila. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.12, occuring on September 20 in Sotillo de la Adrada, Ávila. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.14, occuring on August 24 in Palazuelos de Eresma, Segovia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 6: Estimated VRI in Castilla y León during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Castilla-La Mancha

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Castilla-La Mancha will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.19, occuring on October 20 in Illescas, Toledo. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.29, occuring on September 17 in Illescas, Toledo. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.3, occuring on June 28 in Illescas, Toledo. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 7: Estimated VRI in Castilla-La Mancha during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Cataluña/Catalunya

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Cataluña/Catalunya will be 0.06, and the maximum will be 0.66, occuring on October 17 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.09, and the maximum has been 0.73, occuring on October 10 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.07, and the maximum has been 0.73, occuring on October 10 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 8: Estimated VRI in Cataluña/Catalunya during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta will be 0.27, and the maximum will be 0.32, occuring on October 19 in Ceuta, Ceuta. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.28, and the maximum has been 0.33, occuring on September 22 in Ceuta, Ceuta. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.23, and the maximum has been 0.36, occuring on November 13 in Ceuta, Ceuta. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 9: Estimated VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla will be 0.25, and the maximum will be 0.38, occuring on October 20 in Melilla, Melilla. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.33, and the maximum has been 0.4, occuring on October 13 in Melilla, Melilla. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.21, and the maximum has been 0.4, occuring on October 13 in Melilla, Melilla. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 10: Estimated VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Comunidad Foral de Navarra

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunidad Foral de Navarra will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.41, occuring on October 19 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.01, and the maximum has been 0.62, occuring on October 01 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.72, occuring on June 27 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 11: Estimated VRI in Comunidad Foral de Navarra during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Comunidad de Madrid

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunidad de Madrid will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.14, occuring on October 20 in Collado Villalba, Madrid. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.01, and the maximum has been 0.27, occuring on October 06 in Collado Villalba, Madrid. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.01, and the maximum has been 0.29, occuring on August 14 in Collado Villalba, Madrid. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 12: Estimated VRI in Comunidad de Madrid during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Comunitat Valenciana

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunitat Valenciana will be 0.12, and the maximum will be 0.72, occuring on October 21 in Benetússer, Valencia/Valéncia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.15, and the maximum has been 0.87, occuring on October 08 in Benetússer, Valencia/Valéncia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.11, and the maximum has been 0.94, occuring on November 14 in Vinalesa, Valencia/Valéncia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 13: Estimated VRI in Comunitat Valenciana during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Extremadura

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Extremadura will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.09, occuring on October 20 in Almaraz, Cáceres. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.13, occuring on September 22 in Almaraz, Cáceres. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.13, occuring on June 16 in Almaraz, Cáceres. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 14: Estimated VRI in Extremadura during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Galicia

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Galicia will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.25, occuring on October 19 in Vigo, Pontevedra. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.35, occuring on September 18 in Vigo, Pontevedra. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.36, occuring on July 11 in Vigo, Pontevedra. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 15: Estimated VRI in Galicia during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Illes Balears

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Illes Balears will be 0.09, and the maximum will be 0.48, occuring on October 20 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.14, and the maximum has been 0.51, occuring on October 05 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.09, and the maximum has been 0.51, occuring on June 15 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 16: Estimated VRI in Illes Balears during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

La Rioja

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in La Rioja will be 0, and the maximum will be 0.08, occuring on October 20 in Logroño, Rioja, La. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.19, occuring on September 20 in Logroño, Rioja, La. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0.2, occuring on June 18 in Logroño, Rioja, La. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 17: Estimated VRI in La Rioja during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

País Vasco/Euskadi

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in País Vasco/Euskadi will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.46, occuring on October 20 in Portugalete, Bizkaia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.55, occuring on September 20 in Portugalete, Bizkaia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.55, occuring on June 27 in Portugalete, Bizkaia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 18: Estimated VRI in País Vasco/Euskadi during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Principado de Asturias

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Principado de Asturias will be 0, and the maximum will be 0, occuring on October 17 in Allande, Asturias. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on September 17 in Allande, Asturias. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0, and the maximum has been 0, occuring on November 07 in Allande, Asturias. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 19: Estimated VRI in Principado de Asturias during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

Región de Murcia

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Región de Murcia will be 0.16, and the maximum will be 0.77, occuring on October 18 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.18, and the maximum has been 0.77, occuring on October 08 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.14, and the maximum has been 0.97, occuring on November 15 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.

Figure 20: Estimated VRI in Región de Murcia during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.