Daily Report

This report is updated automatically each day to highlight key insights from the MosquitoAlertBCN platform. It focuses on the 7-day-ahead forecast of the Vector Risk Index (VRI) for tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus) in Barcelona. This provides a relative measure of the variation in the risk of human contact with tiger mosquitoes across Barcelona and over time. The 7-day-ahead forecast (which starts on the current day) is based on the weather forecast provided daily by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. The VRI forecast is updated between 11:30 am and 12:30 pm each day.

City-Wide Trends

During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Barcelona will be 0.02 and the maximum will be 0.06, occuring on January 01. Figure 1 shows the mean and maximum values estimated for each day, starting 30-days ago and extending 7-days ahead of today.

Figure 1: Estimated city-wide VRI during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.

District VRI

Figure 2 shows mean VRI estimates for each of Barcelona’s districts. The district with the highest estimated mean VRI is Gràcia, with a value of 0.03. The means, however, mask a great deal of spatial variation within districts. Figure 3 shows the distribution of VRI estimates for the next 7 days (pooled), made at 20m resolution for each of Barcelona’s districts. Districts are ordered according to their median VRI and the city-wide median is shown with the vertical red line.

Figure 2: Mean 20m VRI estimates by district during the next 7 days.

Figure 3: Distribution of 20m VRI estimates by district during the next 7 days. Districts are ordered according to their median VRI and the city-wide median is shown with the vertical red line.

Neighborhood VRI

Figure 4 shows mean VRI estimates for each of Barcelona’s neighborhoods The neighborhood with the highest estimated mean VRI is la Font d’en Fargues, with a value of 0.04. As with the disitrict means, the neighborhood means also mask a great deal of spatial variation. Figure 3 shows the distribution of VRI estimates for the next 7 days (pooled), made at 20m resolution for each of Barcelona’s neighborhoods. Neighborhoods are ordered according to their median VRI and the city-wide median is shown with the vertical red line.

Figure 4: Mean 20m VRI estimates by neighborhood during next 7 days.

Figure 5: Distribution of 20m VRI estimates by neighborhood during the next 7 days. Neighborhoods are ordered according to their median VRI and the city-wide median is shown with the vertical red line.